CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-01-22T11:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-01-22T11:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36567/-1
CME Note: Wide, messy CME seen to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the southeast in STEREO A COR2. Source is a large eruption from the southwest quadrant of the disk, from the large Active Region 13961 which was centered at S10W28 at the time of the eruption. Dimming starting at 2025-01-22T10:43Z extends from S10-S50 and from W10-W40 as seen in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines and ejecta can be seen in SDO AIA 171 and SDO AIA 304, respectively. It is possible that two small filaments lifted off in this eruption, however, there is filamentary material visible/reformed after the eruption. An M1.3 flare from AR 13961 with peak time 2025-01-22T11:08Z is associated with this event. This CME visually overlaps with the far-sided CME:2025-01-22T08:36Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-25T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-01-22T17:00Z Radial velocity (km/s): 591 Longitude (deg): 009W Latitude (deg): 28S Half-angular width (deg): 33 Notes: Full halo shock but with the dark helicoidal filament emission (in AIA304) perhaps appearing confined to the southern solar hemisphere (i.e. mainly below the Sun-Earth line). Speeds obtained from fitting closely match the Type II radio emission estimation of 561km/s (550-600km/s from multiple CME fits). MOSWOC Enlil is currently slightly over-estimating the speeds from the declining phase of CH09/-, which may slightly late-shift the inbound CME which otherwise crosses 1AU around 25/1800UTC. There is a small chance that this CME may coincide (as shown in the MOSWOC Enlil ensemble) with that from 21 January, which is the reason for the non-zero but not favoured risk of Strong G3. Halfway-house fit between two forecasters' multiple attempts used. Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence after DWLead Time: 53.23 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-01-23T12:46Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy